Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 39.078849 42.658615 46.657591 51.507396 57.302611 64.103591 72.843540
2025-08-24 33.244768 37.681862 42.994052 49.983757 59.207748 71.408004 89.657804
2025-08-31 31.314702 36.485511 43.007388 52.165754 65.324615 84.793021 118.989218
2025-09-07 28.677336 33.951385 40.811993 50.840810 66.070774 90.441103 138.965326
2025-09-14 26.685363 31.992456 39.067720 49.756107 66.770962 95.987623 161.837507
2025-09-21 24.614635 29.730215 36.651021 47.317967 64.808669 96.264659 173.685512
2025-09-28 23.481330 28.636845 35.747146 47.003499 66.223998 103.151220 207.348084
2025-10-05 23.460599 29.054423 37.011691 50.178937 74.287596 126.610677 325.135154
2025-10-12 22.443998 27.983845 35.973529 49.463866 74.994167 133.933805 401.599252
2025-10-19 21.825717 27.440027 35.676402 49.941700 78.121246 148.917450 580.300550
2025-10-26 21.581149 27.417215 36.166146 51.827568 84.602498 177.702061 1206.766867
2025-11-02 21.164065 27.106202 36.166587 52.820679 89.391458 205.548829 3614.611966
2025-11-09 20.046260 25.822138 34.736093 51.438431 89.458663 221.586660 70454.862487
2025-11-16 18.973433 24.566002 33.291555 49.929997 89.103801 238.082960 NaN
2025-11-23 18.665190 24.451850 33.709624 52.107272 99.167966 329.304526 NaN
2025-11-30 17.819444 23.437603 32.503889 50.784904 98.992802 361.011073 NaN
2025-12-07 17.091381 22.566992 31.477576 49.702250 99.249083 401.349119 NaN
2025-12-14 16.218783 21.423804 29.901764 47.268599 94.642794 387.379658 NaN
2025-12-21 15.731189 20.873551 29.332125 46.954698 96.848866 457.587005 NaN
2025-12-28 15.768469 21.166762 30.275533 50.124284 112.485754 915.007178 NaN
2026-01-04 15.283217 20.577812 29.572050 49.410555 113.610083 1147.173762 NaN
2026-01-11 14.981997 20.277963 29.380019 49.887494 119.889905 2050.369447 NaN
2026-01-18 14.863898 20.275339 29.740010 51.769767 133.726412 21052.954997 NaN